Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $55,791$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(7.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,670.5}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(54,670.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,108$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(1.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,850.4}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,850.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,996$ on 2020-05-19

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $232,037$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(4.32 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{223,372.6}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 34.1)}}\) (asimptote \(223,372.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,778$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(4.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,699.5}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(26,699.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $204,259$ on 2020-05-19

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $226,699$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(3.58 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{221,223.7}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(221,223.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32,169$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(4.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,194.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(31,194.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $65,129$ on 2020-05-19

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $250,138$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(1.73 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{259,269.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 49.3)}}\) (asimptote \(259,269.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,422$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(3.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,733.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(34,733.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $213,617$ on 2020-05-19

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $180,933$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(2.64 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{178,790.3}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 39.6)}}\) (asimptote \(178,790.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,025$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(3.59 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,913.9}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(26,913.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $90,230$ on 2020-05-19

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,799$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,867.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 55.4)}}\) (asimptote \(33,867.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,743$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(307 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,846.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,846.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,085$ on 2020-05-19

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,449$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(6.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,948.6}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 39.1)}}\) (asimptote \(43,948.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,734$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(764 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,672.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,672.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $38,548$ on 2020-05-19

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,251$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(2.38 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,064.2}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(24,064.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,561$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(117 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,570.8}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 42.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,570.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,220$ on 2020-05-19

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Slovenia recovered 98%
Luxembourg recovered 95%
Switzerland recovered 93%
Austria recovered 89%
Croatia recovered 87%
Andorra recovered 84%
Germany recovered 81%
Slovakia recovered 73%
Denmark recovered 72%
Lithuania recovered 54%
Czechia recovered 51%
Italy recovered 40%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 34%
Serbia recovered 28%
Romania recovered 24%
San Marino recovered 15%
France recovered 8%

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,467$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(440 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,451.0}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 24.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,451.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $104$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(17.7 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102.6}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 30.7)}}\) (asimptote \(102.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25$ on 2020-05-19

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,958$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(882 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,794.9}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,794.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $109$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(21.7 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102.9}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(102.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $131$ on 2020-05-19

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,618$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(7.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,850.9}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(29,850.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,891$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(280 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,861.6}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,861.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,027$ on 2020-05-19

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,321$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(4.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,499.8}{1 + 10^{-0.078 (t - 28.2)}}\) (asimptote \(15,499.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $632$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(115 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{626.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(626.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,011$ on 2020-05-19